Catalans Link Arms for Independence While Their President Pulls Back from Separatist Precipice

Hundreds of thousands of Catalans, perhaps more than a million according to some accounts, linked arms in a dramatic human chain across their small nation on September 11th to notify the world that they crave independence from the Kingdom of Spain.  But the stunt proved to be less of a momentum-building event to carry the message through to a referendum next year on secession and more of an awkward backdrop to the newest statement by Catalonia’s president and the ruling separatist party’s leader, Artur Mas i Govarró, who seems suddenly to be climbing down from his previous confrontational stance toward Madrid.

Artur Mas, greeting a separatist rally last year.  He might not get such a warm reception today.

Initially, Mas’s Democratic Convergence of Catalonia party (Convergència Democràtica de Catalunya, or C.D.C.) had defiantly said it would hold a referendum on independence whether the Spanish government approved or not, and it would be binding.  But Madrid made it perfectly clear that any such referendum would be constitutionally impermissible.  Now, on September 14th, Mas came right out and said that no referendum would be held against the wishes of the central government.  Since the central government’s implacable position is well known, this is tantamount to Mas canceling the referendum.  He said that instead the 2016 elections would be interpreted as a symbolic plebiscite on the future direction of Catalonia’s status—a rather weak substitute indeed.

The human chain stretched over 400 kilometers, from the French border in the north to the internal border with Spain’s autonomous Valencia region to the south.  It ran mostly along the coast, including some of Catalonia’s nude beaches (see photo above).  It took place on la Diada, Catalonia’s national holiday, which commemorates this year the 299th anniversary of the reabsorption of Catalonia into Spain after Spain’s defeat by the United Kingdom (whom the Catalans backed) in the Wars of Spanish Succession.

The route of last week’s human chain

The stunt was directly modeled on the Baltic Way, a similar human chain in 1989 which snaked through Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania in a mass demand for independence from the Soviet Union.  (Recognizing this, a Catalan reporter asked Latvia’s prime minister, Valdis Dombrovskis, whether he would recognize an independent Catalonia.  “Provided there is legitimacy of the process, I would say, theoretically, why not?” he replied, leading to a formal protest from Madrid and the recalling of Spain’s ambassador in Riga.)

Only a little over half of all Catalans support independence, actually, but more than 80% tell pollsters they want a referendum.  This, one would think, is enough of a mandate for Mas to take a less conciliatory tone.  But Mas’s climbdown is a political gamble in more immediate ways.  The coalition that C.D.C. dominates, Convergence and Union (Convergència i Unió, or CiU) coalition, does not have enough seats to rule on its own and relies on the support of the Democratic Left of Catalonia (Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya, or E.R.C.), which typically takes more controversial hard-line stands, such as recognizing the legitimacy of British rule in the disputed colony of Gibraltar (as reported recently in this blog) and calling for unification with the much smaller Catalan region just over the border in southeastern France.  The E.R.C. has always been more committed to a referendum than C.D.C., so now the ruling coalition may collapse.  That would put secession even farther out of reach.

The human chain across Catalonia might simply mark the end of the line for the small nation’s dream of independence.

[Also, for those who are wondering, yes, this blog is tied in with a forthcoming book, a sort of encyclopedic atlas to be published by Auslander and Fox under the title Let’s Split! A Complete Guide to Separatist Movements, Independence Struggles, Breakaway Republics, Rebel Provinces, Pseudostates, Puppet States, Tribal Fiefdoms, Micronations, and Do-It-Yourself Countries, from Chiapas to Chechnya and Tibet to Texas.  Look for it some time in 2013.  I will be keeping readers posted of further publication news.]

Catalans Must Decide: EU or Not EU? Unilateral or Negotiated? Include Valencia and Balearics?

As Catalan leaders plan a referendum in 2014 on independence from Spain, they are debating questions such as whether they ought to make a unilateral declaration of independence “à la Kosovo” and whether this would prevent Catalonia from seamlessly remaining in the European Union (E.U.) after a split.  The E.U.’s 2007 Lisbon Treaty clearly says it would, but it’s not clear that the Catalan president Arturo Mas’s plan for a referendum question asking, “Do you wish for Catalonia to become a new state of the European Union?” will get around that if Madrid refuses to play ball.  (See my blog article analyzing this question in detail with respect to Scotland.)

Moreover, media are reporting that some (perhaps most?) Catalonian separatists also envision the Autonomous Community of Valencia, the region to Catalonia’s south, as well as the Balearic Islands off the coast, as part of a “Greater Catalonia.”

The flag of Valencia

Valencia, the Balearics, and Aragon are three regions headed by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy Brey’s People’s Party (P.P.) which have begun rebelling against austerity measures in the P.P.’s 2013 budget.  Valencia and Catalonia are Spain’s two most indebted regions, and prosperous, productive regions feeling that poorer, less productive Spanish regions are pushing them into indebtedness is the main economic factor fueling the secessionist crises in Spain.

Valencia, the Balearics, and Catalonia—along with Aragon, Andalusia, the Basque Country, the Canary Islands, and Galicia—are all constitutionally recognized as distinct “nationalities” within Spain, and Valencia and the Balearics are among those with their own devolved parliaments, like Catalonia’s.

There are differences of opinion as to whether Valencia and the Balearics are culturally and linguistically part of Catalonia: the Balearics use Catalan as an official language alongside Spanish, but the Valencians call their local official language Valencian, not Catalan, though the two are mutually intelligible.

The flag of the Balearic Islands

Separatist sentiment in Valencia, which was its own kingdom until 1707, has never been as strong as in Catalonia, the Basque Country, or Galicia, but Communists in the Balearics briefly agitated for independence in 1978 in the political disorganization following the dictator Francisco Franco’s death.

The flag of Galicia

Expect the exact boundaries of an independent Catalonia to be the source of conflict in the months ahead.  (At least Scotland has Hadrian’s Wall to keep things simple, eh?)

Basque graffiti.  (Boy, they sure make Catalonia look small in this map, don’t they?)

[For those who are wondering, yes, this blog is tied in with my forthcoming book, a sort of encyclopedic atlas to be published by Litwin Books under the title Let’s Split! A Complete Guide to Separatist Movements and Aspirant Nations, from Abkhazia to Zanzibar.  (That is shorter than the previous working title.)  The book, which contains 46 maps and 554 flags (or, more accurately, 554 flag images), will be on shelves and available on Amazon on March 1, 2015.  I will be keeping readers posted of further publication news.  Meanwhile, please “like” the book (even though you haven’t read it yet) on Facebook and see this special announcement for more information on the book.]