Showing posts with label Orange County. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Orange County. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

San Diego County Partition Would Complicate Foundering “South California” Statehood Movement


While several plans to secede from, or subdivide, the State of California gather steam—including the State of Jefferson and a new “Six Californias” proposal—one languishing statehood movement in southern California faces a new challenge to its already-gerrymandered map: the possibility of San Diego County splitting in two.

Though it is still a new idea, some residents in the arid, less populous east of California’s southernmost county, think they would be better off on their own.

The current flag of San Diego County
A Valentine ’s Day “reader’s editorial” in East County magazine (which seems to think “editorial” means any opinion piece), by one (possibly pseudonymous?) Libby Belle, lists the ways in which eastern communities like Julian, Ramona, Alpine, Jamul, and Jacumba Hot Springs are slighted by San Diego’s eponymous county seat: fire safety, public safety, rural poverty, access to public services, and the county government’s imposition of wind energy programs on east-county residents, at the expense of solar energy.  The new entity would be called Chaparral County, inspired by a series of stories in that same publication which called east county residents’ revolt against takeovers of local fire departments “the Chaparral Rebellion.”

And local media quoted one resident as saying, “For instance, like the sheriffs would respond faster.  Then [San Diego Gas & Electric] wants to put their Powerlink in further … Drained our lake … They want to put the sexual perverts out here, too … I feel like San Diego does not care.”

San Diego County has subdivided before.  It used to stretch all along California’s border with Mexico and to the Arizona state line until Imperial County was created out of its eastern half in 1907.  That was the last time a new county was created in the state.


A county partition would have repercussions beyond the current county borders.  For one thing, it throws a wrench into the works of one Jeff Stone, the county supervisor in Riverside County, to the north, who would (as reported earlier in this blog) like a swathe of 13 Republican-dominated counties in the south and east of the state to split away as the State of South California.


Stone’s “Rebellion 2012” plan, as it was originally known, would form South California out of the existing counties of Fresno, Imperial, Inyo, Kern, Kings, Mariposa, Madera, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Tulare (see map above).  The choice of counties makes a certain amount of sense.  Orange County, one of the most consistently Republican-voting counties in the United States, was at the heart of Ronald Reagan’s rise to the governorship in the 1960s and is the birthplace of Richard Nixon and site of John Wayne International Airport.  But the Stone plan eschews the traditionally liberal Los Angeles County and the southern coastal areas in favor of a state boundary that snakes upward through Death Valley, almost all the way to Lake Tahoe, taking in many rural and desert counties that are overwhelmingly Republican.


The one thing that makes Stone’s map look odd is San Diego County.  Though San Diego voted for George W. Bush over Al Gore in 2000 (but only by a Florida-like, wafer-thin margin) and John Kerry in 2004, and tends to send Republicans to Washington, it went for Barack Obama by comfortable margins in both 2008 and 2012.  Like many border areas, it is rapidly Hispanicizing, and most observers feel sure it is headed toward becoming a solidly “blue” (Democratic) county.  Surely, that is one component of the secession drive in the county’s more rural and conservative east, but it also makes San Diego County one that Stone would have a hard time convincing to join his new state.  As I pointed out in my analysis of the South California movement a couple years ago, the proposed state would need to include deep-red Orange County and exclude left-wing L.A., and San Diego and Imperial need to be included so as not to leave the remaining part of California split into two noncontiguous chunks.  (Not that that sort of thing hasn’t been done before—see Michigan’s Upper Peninsula or Virginia’s Northampton and Accomack counties or Point Roberts, Washington—but why push it?)  San Diego also brings South California a decent amount of coastline, rather than settling for only Orange County’s smaller coastline, which contains mostly public beaches anyway, instead of San Diego’s world-class global shipping facilities.  And San Diego would make a much more respectable capital for the new state than a backwater like Riverside or Bakersfield, or even Irvine.  But the idea of San Diego County residents consenting to leave California and becoming the most Democratic part of a solidly-Republican state is quite far-fetched.

A not-serious suggestion for a “South California” flag
A successful drive to create Chaparral County would have the effect of making what was left of San Diego County even more Democratic-leaning than it was before.  Chaparral would be a reliably Republican part of South California, but it would put San Diego—and Jeff Stone’s dream of a state that is a bit more than a high-desert gerrymander—permanently out of reach.
Barack Obama (blue) and Mitt Romney (red) voters by county
in the 2012 election in California

But there is another problem, too.  As southern California becomes more Latino with each census, it is not just San Diego County that has become more “blue” in the Obama era.  In 2012, Obama took comfortable leads in other “South California” counties, including Mono, Fresno, San Bernardino, Imperial, and—bad news for Stone, though the margin was narrow—Riverside County itself (see map above).  Gosh, perhaps even “Chaparral County” could be blue!  How much of this is the “Obama effect”—Latinos identifying with and rallying around a candidate of color—or whether the leftward drift of Hispanics in the last two elections is a trend in and of itself, is the $64,000 question among party strategists.  It’s also one that Stone and his “South California” rebels would do well to pay more attention to.

Latino culture thrives in San Diego—and not just under the freeways.
This may not be an issue quite yet.  Of late, South California has taken a back seat to the resurgence of secessionism in the far-north State of Jefferson region and in Silicon Valley, but California has rarely been as fissiparous as it is now.  Stone better dust off his map, and come up with something more viable.

Hollywood votes blue, but the real housewives of Orange County vote red.
[For those who are wondering, yes, this blog is tied in with a forthcoming book, a sort of encyclopedic atlas to be published by Auslander and Fox under the title Let’s Split! A Complete Guide to Separatist Movements, Independence Struggles, Breakaway Republics, Rebel Provinces, Pseudostates, Puppet States, Tribal Fiefdoms, Micronations, and Do-It-Yourself Countries, from Chiapas to Chechnya and Tibet to Texas.  Look for it some time in mid 2014.  I will be keeping readers posted of further publication news.]

Related articles from this blog:

Sunday, February 16, 2014

Study Finds Silicon Valley’s 6-Way California Split Is Doable


In December, when the Silicon Valley entrepreneur Tim Draper suggested splitting California into six separate states, it seemed like a pie-in-the-sky side show to the more serious movement gaining steam in the state’s far north, to create a separate State of Jefferson.  But Draper’s “Six Californias” idea has just got a sort of thumbs-up—from Sacramento, no less.  A 16-page report drafted for the California legislature concludes that splitting the Golden State into pieces is “clearly legal and doable.”


This would probably not be the flag of the State of Silicon Valley,
but it’s a nice try.
Draper may be best known to the general public as Principal Schmoke on the teen situation comedy The Naked Brothers Band, but in tech circles he is heir to a high-profile venture-capital dynasty.  Silicon Valley’s discontent with California’s corporate regulations and its redistribution of tax revenue from the wealthiest areas to the poorer, more remote ones has been discussed in this blog recently—notably with the San Francisco genetics entrepreneur Balaji Srinivasan planning the Valley’s “ultimate exit” from the state by some means or other, as well as organizations like the Seasteading Institute which want to set up floating free-market cities off the California coast outside United States jurisdiction.  But Draper’s solution is more old-fashioned, following a state-secession trend going back to Ethan Allen and his Green Mountain Boys, who sliced a new state, Vermont, out of New York’s western flank in the colonial period.


Creating new states through secession has occasionally worked in the past.
Draper’s “Six Californias” plan includes a State of Silicon Valley, which would include the San Francisco Bay area and points south; a State of North California running in a thick band from Napa Valley to Lake Tahoe; a State of Jefferson composed of the state’s 14 northernmost counties; a primarily agricultural State of Central California centered on Fresno; a State of West California, stretching from San Luis Obispo to Long Beach, including liberal Los Angeles; and a State of South California composed of some of the inland, conservative, desert states that a Riverside County politician (as reported in this blog) is already trying to form, with a coastal toehold at San Diego and the Republican Party stronghold of Orange County.


A sketch by Draper shows which counties would be in which of six new states:
Jefferson (top), North California (just below it), Silicon Valley, Central California (the largest),
West California (including L.A.), and, at the bottom, South California.
The current state of California, the most populous in the U.S. and the most diverse in terms of ethnicity, landscape, and local economy, is, according to Draper, “ungovernable.”  There is already a movement to gather the necessary 1 million signatures which will put the proposal on the ballot in November.  The report, which was prepared by a legislative expert, Mac Taylor, and a financial specialist, Michael Cohen, notes that the states of Silicon Valley and North California would each have a higher per capita income than California’s current $46,477.  In fact, Silicon Valley would surpass Connecticut and become the state with the highest average income.


Tim Draper—guru of the state-partition movement
Draper says the highest interest in the “Six Californias” proposal is in the areas that would be Central California and the State of Jefferson.  The problem is that which counties want to be in Jefferson (listed in this blog as one of “10 Separatist Movements to Watch in 2014”) is being sorted out right now at the grass-roots level, without waiting for a top-down partition by any city-slicker millionaire technocrat.  To date, the boards of supervisors in Siskiyou and Modoc counties have voted in favor of secession, and Siskiyou and Tehama will put the question before voters in June.  Other counties are considering it, and in Siskiyou there is even going to be an alternate ballot initiative to create a sort of sovereign “Republic of Jefferson” within Siskiyou County’s territory.



But ultimately, the problem is that Draper is approaching the alleged problem of California’s ungovernability like a businessman, not a politician, and it will be politics that will decide, all on its own, whether to partition the state.  Just for the sake of argument, even if the U.S. Congress did agree to a subdivision of California that, let’s say, maintained the same balance between Republicans and Democrats in the Senate, that still doesn’t tell us why California Democrats, who already control the largest state in the U.S., would settle for a smaller place to run.

Related articles from this blog:
“Glenn County Becomes 4th California Jurisdiction to Opt to Join ‘State of Jefferson’” (Jan. 2014)
“Northern Californian Voters Torn between ‘State’ or ‘Republic’ of Jefferson” (Jan. 2014)
“10 Separatist Movements to Watch in 2014” (Dec. 2013)
“State of Jefferson Idea Won’t Go Away: Activists across Northern California Push for Statehood” (Nov. 2013)
“Silicon Valley Technocrats Plan to Flee U.S. for Libertarian Floating Cities” (Nov. 2013)
“Modoc County Joins Siskiyou in Seeking to Split from California as State of Jefferson” (Sept. 2013)
“Other California & Oregon Counties May Be Jumping on ‘State of Jefferson’ Bandwagon” (Sept. 2013)
“Siskiyou County, California, Takes the Plunge, Votes to Secede as Kernel of New ‘State of Jefferson’” (Sept. 2013)
“Colorado’s Secession Wildfire Spreads to Northern California: Siskiyouans Raise “State of Jefferson” Flag” (Aug. 2013)
“Let a Thousand Secession Petitions Bloom: The U.S. Balkanized, but Perhaps Only on the White House Website, Nowhere Else—but Most Importantly: What Does All This Have to Do with Topless Car Washes and the State of Jefferson?” (Nov. 2012)
“‘South California’ Statehood Movement Reignites in Election Year” (Sept. 2012)



[For those who are wondering, yes, this blog is tied in with my forthcoming book, a sort of encyclopedic atlas to be published by Auslander and Fox under the title Let’s Split! A Complete Guide to Separatist Movements, Independence Struggles, Breakaway Republics, Rebel Provinces, Pseudostates, Puppet States, Tribal Fiefdoms, Micronations, and Do-It-Yourself Countries, from Chiapas to Chechnya and Tibet to Texas.  The book is now in the layout phase and should be on shelves, and available on Amazon, by early fall 2014.  I will be keeping readers posted of further publication news.  Meanwhile, please “like” the book (even though you haven’t read it yet) on Facebook.]

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

“South California” Statehood Movement Reignites in Election Year


The movement to make part of southern California the 51st state of the United States has reemerged this election season.  California’s famously left-wing governor (and a nemesis to conservatives), Jerry Brown, on September 19th vetoed a law that would have returned $14 million in vehicle-license fees to four cities in Riverside County, a vast rectangular swathe of inland southern Californian desert.  Those towns’ loss of funds in a move by Brown and the Democratic-majority legislature last year would, according to Jeff Stone, the county supervisor, have caused the towns to go bankrupt, and it was that diversion that first lit the fuse of separatism last year.

Stone now heads a South California statehood movement called Rebellion 2012, which has about 600 members, 1,400 or more supporters (to judge by its Facebook page), and a budget of, ahem, $1,200, but Stone’s chief of staff said this week that he still believes in the cause “absolutely” and “passionately ... because the state is so dysfunctional.”  Its rallying cries are smaller government, decentralization, and deregulation, key themes in the Obama-era “Tea Party” movement that has turned the national Republican Party upside-down.  A major Rebellion 2012 rally scheduled for September 29th in Vail Lake, however, has just been rescheduled for the spring (by which time, one assumes, it will be renamed Rebellion 2013).

The counties in Stone’s envisioned South California are Riverside, San Bernardino, Imperial, San Diego, Orange, Kings, Kern, Fresno, Tulare, Inyo, Madera, Mariposa, and Mono (see map below).

“South California,” a new state proposed by Jeff Stone’s Rebellion 2012 movement

This draws a quite different map than the usual, unofficial division between “Northern California” and “Southern California,” which tends to use the straight line that has San Bernardino, Kern, and San Luis Obispo to its south and Monterey, Kings, Tulare, and Inyo to the north (see map below).

“Southern California,” as envisioned in common parlance

That division makes some sense culturally and geographically, but modern state-partition movements in the U.S. tend to be about partisan politics, often ultimately national partisan politics.  And in California, a “blue” (Democratic Party) state, the divide between “red” (Republican Party) and “blue” counties tends to be, as elsewhere in the country, an urban–rural split, and to some extent (as in Oregon and Washington as well), a coastal-vs.-inland one.  Here, for example, is how California’s counties voted in the 2000 presidential race, the race that has come to define the modern deep partisan divide in American politics:



... and here are equivalent maps for the 2004 election ...



... and the 2008 election (blue is Barack Obama, red is John McCain) ...


... and for the breakdown, by party, of California’s federal Congressional districts, after the last two elections:


Though there have been some distorting effects over the years—such as the enormous popularity of Ronald Reagan, a charismatic Californian Republican who carried many traditionally Democratic jurisdictions in 1980 and 1984—these maps give a general picture of the urban–rule, coast–inland divide.  And the above map shows how the trend is toward an ever-shrinking reliably-Republican zone in California.  This is due to a number of factors, including the increasing numbers of Hispanics—who tend, especially in the Obama era, to be Democrats—in parts of California.  You can see here that, in the American electoral system—under which the presidential candidate who gets the most votes in a state gets all the electoral votes for that state—many Republican Californians feel that they may as well not vote at all.  Dividing California would create a blue North California and a red South California and would re-empower some of California’s Republicans in national races.  In this, Stone is far more astutely attentive to real-world politics than, for example, a 1992 proposal for a three-way partition of California which would have created three states that would each have the same internal partisan divides as California as a whole:


Given that, Stone’s choice of his 13 counties is a bit counterintuitive in places.  Obama’s sweep of southern counties outside Los Angeles and Orange may be ephemeral—due to his appeal to non-whites that might otherwise vote Republican, perhaps.  So, clearly, Stone is relying on San Bernardino and Riverside being, at base, Republican counties—as non-presidential races in those counties tend to confirm.  Less supportable is the idea that San Diego and Imperial counties are, at heart, Republican counties.  Although it is true that San Diego is a more politically conservative city than many cities its size, especially in local politics, both those counties are trending blue (and trending more Hispanic) and, though they were evenly split in 2000 and 2004, went strongly for Obama in 2008.

Stone openly excludes Los Angeles County as “too liberal,” and, indeed, the county does seem to be Democratic across the board.  Orange County, likewise, is red across the board.  Orange is, in fact, by some measures, the most consistently Republican-voting county out of all the U.S.’s 3,033 counties (Louisiana’s parishes and Alaska’s boroughs being considered “counties” here).  Orange County is also the birthplace of Richard M. Nixon, it was ground zero of “Reagan Country” in Reagan’s gubernatorial and presidential races, and the county’s main airport was renamed the John Wayne International Airport ... do I need to go on?  The South California movement’s reasoning seems to be that Orange County cannot be excluded from any envisioned new, southern state, while Los Angeles cannot be included.  Thus, San Diego and Imperial need to be brought into South California so as not to leave North California split into two noncontiguous chunks.  San Diego also brings South California a respectable coastline, rather than consisting only of Orange County’s smaller coastline, which contains mostly public beaches anyway, not usable harbors.  And San Diego would make a much more respectable capital for the new state than a backwater like Fontana, Barstow, Bakersfield, or Irvine.  But the idea of San Diego County residents consenting to leave California and becoming the most, almost the only, Democratic part of a solidly-Republican state is quite far-fetched.

A statue of the Duke himself greets arrivals
at John Wayne International Airport in Orange County.
Also, why not include some of California’s far-northern Republican counties in “South California”?  Surely, there would be—and probably already is—more enthusiasm for getting out from under Sacramento’s thumb in any of the inland counties north of Lake Tahoe—Lassen, Siskiyou, etc. etc.—than anywhere in San Diego County, for example.  Here, the secessionists’ motivations might be psychological or symbolic.  A reorientation of the partition to the political realities of the coastal–inland split would make the separatists look more rural and remote than they are, and thus less likely to be taken seriously as a movement and as a state.

Secondly, South California separatists might desire to not appear to be asking for more than half the state.  Stone’s smaller “South California” sends the message: “Look, we’re just a small group of people that disagree with the way things are run.  Let us leave, and you might not even notice.”  (Though South California would still be gigantic by any standards other than western North American ones.  One of its constituent counties alone, San Bernardino County, is the largest county in the U.S., larger than, say, Connecticut, and larger than countries such as, say, Costa Rica, the Netherlands, or Albania.)

Here, Stone and his supporters are perhaps savvier than Bill Maze, a former state legislator who represented Inyo, Kern, Tulare, and San Bernardino counties, and heads a movement called Citizens for Saving California Farm Industries.  He advocates a partition involving hiving off a relatively small part of the coastline as “Coastal California” (see map below), leaving the rest of the state as a larger, more Republican jurisdiction.  But his rallying issues are mainly agricultural, and in the Central Valley, and he has not tapped anywhere near the strong feelings across the state that Stone’s movement has.  Plus, Coastal Californians would not consent to losing so much valuable real estate; they rightly perceive Maze’s movement as a version of “let’s just kick the hippies ’n’ queers out of California.”  (The same problem vexes a conservative-Republican-led movement to eject Cook County, which includes Chicago, from Illinois, which I discussed in a blog post several months ago.)

Bill Maze’s vision for a State of Coastal California

Leaving northern inland California under Sacramento’s control also has a political logic to it.  Those counties are far less populous and so would be less important to the success of the statehood movement.  They also include areas of natural beauty and, more crucially in the coming decades, water resources that Sacramento might fight much harder to keep control of.

So “South California,” as it is delineated, is an odd gerrymander but one that makes some sense.  The question is whether it could ever be implemented.

Partition of California is an old idea.  It was floated in the run-up to the Civil War, when many states and territories were torn between joining the slave or free parts of the U.S.  In the late 19th century, and then again in 1965, dividing the state using a straight line across the approximate Southern California–Northern California divide was proposed.  In 1965, it passed in the Senate but died in the Assembly.  And, of course, in 1941 there was a proposal to take the far-northern counties of California and the far-southern ones of Oregon to create the State of Jefferson.  That idea is still raised wistfully by modern Tea Party types in that region who feel that the liberals in Sacramento and Salem don’t listen to them.  Some barns in northern California and southwestern Oregon display large State of Jefferson flags to make their point.  (The two “X”es refer to the area’s residents feeling that they have been “double-crossed” by urban elites.)


Speaking of flags, one way that you can tell the South California movement is not serious is that they don’t have a flag yet.  And to judge by the flag of Stone’s own Riverside County ...


... there is no reason to expect anything impressive in the flag department.  In fact, let’s just admit it, Riverside County’s flag looks like shit—in composition, colors, image quality, typeface, everything.  (See one of my favorite blogs, Bad Flags, for much more nuanced rants in this vein.)  Most U.S. counties don’t even have flags at all, but merely use the county seal to place upon a plain background to serve as a flag.  Orange County, however, has done a nice variation on this that is reminiscent of the New Mexico flag (the most striking and aesthetically pleasing of all state flags, incidentally):


Or, as another possibility, South California could play on California’s excellent (almost as good as New Mexico’s) bear flag ...



... and have a flag showing half a bear.  If so, I can suggest which half would be appropriate.

But to be implemented, any new states admitted to the Union must be approved by the U.S. Congress.  Just as in the Civil War era, it was only politically possible to admit new states in pairs—one slave, one free—to maintain the tense political balance, so in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries with partisan politics.  Alaska and Hawaii were admitted in tandem in 1959 because Hawaii is a Democratic state and Alaska Republican one.  If South California is made a state, then the rest of California would remain reliably blue, so it would amount to creating a new red state, and that would have to be balanced by the admission of a new blue state.  Perhaps, if the right alliances are made across the aisle and across the continent, this could be the moment the District of Columbia has been waiting for.

(Then there’s Puerto Rico, but that I will leave to a later blog post.  Watch this space.)



[You can read more about South California, the State of Jefferson, and many other separatist and new-nation movements, both famous and obscure, in my new book, a sort of encyclopedic atlas just published by Litwin Books under the title Let’s Split! A Complete Guide to Separatist Movements and Aspirant Nations, from Abkhazia to Zanzibar.  The book, which contains 46 maps and 554 flags (or, more accurately, 554 flag images), is available for order now on Amazon.  Meanwhile, please “like” the book (even if you haven’t read it yet) on Facebook and see this interview for more information on the book.]



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