Almost certainly inspired by the success of the
Islamic State (
I.S., also known as
ISIS or
ISIL) in capturing and holding a huge swathe of
Iraq and
Syria and declaring it the kernel of an eventual global caliphate, the Nigerian Islamist terrorist group
Boko Haram has shifted from hit-and-run mass killings and is now concentrating on holding territory and declaring an Islamic state. This is a game-changer for
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous and most combustively ethnically diverse country, and ushers in a new phase of what is clearly now a full-on sectarian civil war.
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| Boko Haram’s dune-buggy battalion |
In a nearly hour-long video made available on August 24th (see image at the top of this article), Boko Haram’s apparent leader,
Abubakar Shekau, speaking both Arabic and Hausa,
declared that the recently captured town of Gwoza was now “made ... part of the Islamic caliphate.” Last month, in a similar communiqué, Shekau had openly supported the I.S., whose leader,
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, had declared himself “caliph” and “leader of Muslims everywhere.” But the new video did not explicitly call Gwoza part of a caliphate based in Mesopotamia.
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Towns in Nigeria recently captured by Boko Haram are shown in red.
An unknown portion of rural areas between them is controlled by Boko Haram as well. |
In addition to Gwoza, which is in the southern part of
Borno State, in Nigeria’s predominantly-Muslim northern half, Boko Haram is also believed to hold territory elsewhere in Borno including the large town of Damboa; parts of
Yobe State that include Buni Yadi; and, most recently captured, in the Madagali district of
Adamawa State. But getting accurate information is difficult; there had long been areas so consistently terrorized by Boko Haram that the Nigerian military had no effective presence there.
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| Abubakar Shekau |
The 52-minute video also shows footage of the capture of a Nigerian military base, the seizure of a tank, and the mass execution of what appear to be about twenty civilians.
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| Nigeria’s president, Goodluck Jonathan: helpless |
The following day, Boko Haram
recaptured Gamboru–Ngala, a village cluster in Borno on the border with
Cameroon—reportedly sending the local Nigerian military fleeing into Cameroon without even trying to put up a resistance—and within the past 24 hours (on August 27th), according to reports, the group
was closing in on Gulak, the Madagali district capital, in the far north of Adamawa. They are gradually building a cohesive territory, and the Nigerian state seems to lack either the resources or the political will to stop them.
Setting up an Islamic state has been tried before. The
Taliban called
Afghanistan the
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan during the years it ruled there, a name still used in pockets of territory it controls. The
Islamic Emirate of Somalia and the
Islamic Emirate of Waziristan, in
Pakistan, are names designating areas of those countries controlled by, respectively,
al-Shabaab and various
al-Qaeda and Taliban groups. An “
Emirate of Waqar,” declared by al-Qaeda in a town in
Yemen, was recaptured by the Yemeni government in 2012. The terrorist group
Caucasus Emirate claims a state consisting of the Muslim areas in and near
Russia’s North Caucasus mountains, but it does not administer any territory.
Closer to Nigeria, the al-Qaeda-linked groups
Ansar al-Dine and
MUJAO (
Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa) controlled the northern two-thirds of
Mali as an
Islamic Republic of Azawad for about a year ending in early 2013 (see map above), when it was ousted by troops from
France,
Chad, and other countries. It still controls small territories, and, although it piggy-backed its agenda onto the back of a separatist uprising by the
Tuareg minority, its avowed aim was to turn all of Mali into an Islamic state. Turning all of Nigeria into an Islamic emirate had been Boko Haram’s aim as well, and it had seemed absurd, since the country, which is about evenly divided between Christians and Muslims, is nearly entirely Christian in its southern half. But the new territorial claims are more pragmatic and are clearly inspired by I.S., which began by capturing towns in the west and north of Syria, expanded into Fallujah, Iraq, earlier this year, and has recently spread its territory northward up against the autonomous Kurdistan Region. I.S. never aimed to take all of Syria or Iraq; they are just taking as much as they can and running it like a state, and that seems to be Boko Haram’s plan as well.
Already a coalition and an international consensus is building to stop I.S. in its tracks, with even deadly enemies like the
United States and
Iran finding common cause on the issue. Syria and Iraq, of course, are a vitally strategic area, both geopolitically and economically. This is less true of the arid north of Nigeria. So who will stop Boko Haram?
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| Worst-case scenario? |
[You can read more about Boko Haram, Islamic State, and many other separatist and new-nation movements, both famous and obscure, in my new book, a sort of encyclopedic atlas just published by Litwin Books under the title Let’s Split! A Complete Guide to Separatist Movements and Aspirant Nations, from Abkhazia to Zanzibar. The book, which contains 46 maps and 554 flags (or, more accurately, 554 flag images), is available for order now on Amazon. Meanwhile, please “like” the book (even if you haven’t read it yet) on Facebook and see this interview for more information on the book.]
