tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-389121945571056758.post5338412707416660392..comments2023-09-14T13:10:13.418-05:00Comments on Springtime of Nations: The Iraq War Is Over, but Is Iraq’s Partition Just Beginning?Chris Rothhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06344656092851347185noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-389121945571056758.post-21553957292944625962014-06-15T01:53:08.274-05:002014-06-15T01:53:08.274-05:00I just read this on the eve of the ISIS march on B...I just read this on the eve of the ISIS march on Baghdad ...to say the least your were prescient....thank you for this now very useful backgrounder.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-389121945571056758.post-83482110239928847002011-12-23T14:50:42.679-06:002011-12-23T14:50:42.679-06:00Thanks for the comment. You may be right; certain...Thanks for the comment. You may be right; certainly I wouldn't be shocked to see the Kurds left in the lurch by the rest of the world once again; they're getting used to it by now. Granted, I can't know what Turkey would do if Western countries one by one started recognizing Kurdistan. I think the Western deference to Turkey is a reflex dating back to the Cold War, when it was NATO's bulwark against the U.S.S.R. and when shipping access to the Black Sea was more crucial than it is now. Cyprus's admission to the E.U. and Turkey's lack of enthusiasm for the U.S. invasion of Iraq (also witness Turkey's current flare-up with France over the question of recognizing the Armenian genocide) show that that relationship is wearing thin.<br /><br />I think one analogy for how Turkey might behave is Serbia over the past decade or so—seeing Montenegro and Kosovo hived off of its territory but not going to the mat on the issue mainly because the carrot of eventual E.U. membership is still dangling there. Turkey has no reliable, thick-or-thin allies left to speak of, and it can't afford to be mortal enemies of European neighbors in a hot-war situation. Plus, Kurdistan has oil. Whichever Western country can start befriending an independent Kurdistan right out of the gate wouldn't really need Turkey.<br /><br />On the other hand, if Turkey allows Iraqi Kurds to secede without interference it might prompt an (always threatened) military coup in Ankara, which could place in power some meshuggeneh Islamist (or even secularist nationalist) who would say, "We got nothin' to lose" and start going ballistic all over Kurds on both sides of the border without regard to consequences. Turkey—like Russia, Greece, and Serbia—has a paranoid style of nationalism, and that's the kind that becomes unpredictable when provoked.<br /><br />There's also the question of how an independent Kurdistan would get its oil to market, and that would depend on how friendly the governments will be in Syria, Turkey, Iran, and/or possible new Arab states in today's Iraq—all of them unknowables in the long term.<br /><br />Clearly, there are lots of different ways this could play out.Chris Rothhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06344656092851347185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-389121945571056758.post-22339878699231336052011-12-23T13:58:46.040-06:002011-12-23T13:58:46.040-06:00Nice post, I really enjoyed it. You state that &qu...Nice post, I really enjoyed it. You state that "All it would take is a small number of E.U. or NATO allies to support a Kurdish state, and Turkey would back off. ... [Turkey] doesn’t have any stomach for fighting outside its borders." I am curious what is the basis of that statement? <br /><br />I have always assumed that if Iraq started balkanizing then Turkey would seize the opportunity send troops over the mountains and 'secure' Northern Iraq, 'detaining' the Peshmurga leadership, setting up checkpoints, etc. Meanwhile the Western Allies would make mewling sounds and wave their hands in the air but do nothing to support the Kurds, focusing instead on the Sunni/Shia apocalypse as it unfolded.<br /><br />If Iran came into play supporting the Kurds, I could see Turkey being more cautious, but it seems Iran's attention would quickly be seized by the inevitable Sunni/Shia vortex, again leaving the Kurds in their traditional role of being abandoned by all.<br /><br />I am interested in your comments, thanks!mdhitchcockhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08158131829747864461noreply@blogger.com